Brandon’s passion for aviation started at a young age. Growing up, he was involved in the flight simulator and VATSIM communities, and he went on to earn his private pilot license while in college. Brandon holds a BSE in computer science and currently works as a software engineer. Outside of work, he continues to build flight hours and explore new airports around the country.
Airbus released its 2026 Global Market Forecast on July 8, projecting demand for 42,060 new passenger aircraft with 100 or more seats between 2026 and 2045. The forecast covers both fleet replacement and growth, with the global passenger fleet expected to nearly double from 23,310 aircraft at the end of 2025 to 45,550 by 2045. Simple Flying attended the briefing in London, where Airbus Head of Market Analysis and Forecast Antonio Da Costa presented the figures.
The headline number reflects a global aviation market that Airbus expects to grow at 3.9% annually over the next 20 years despite near-term headwinds including the Iran conflict, US tariff policy, and Russian airspace closures. Nearly half of the 42,060 deliveries, approximately 47%, will replace aircraft already in service today. The remainder supports fleet growth driven by rising GDP, a global middle class expanding by 1.7 billion people, and a network of city pairs that has grown from 17,800 in 2005 to 28,000 in 2025 with more than half of those routes not existing 20 years ago.
42,060 Aircraft: What The Headline Number Includes
Airbus forecasts that airlines will need 42,060 new passenger aircraft with 100 or more seats between 2026 and 2045. Antonio Da Costa, Airbus’ Head of Market Analysis and Forecast, presented the figures at the company’s 2026 Global Market Forecast briefing in London, which Simple Flying attended. “A very significant portion of that, 47%, is simply to replace the existing fleet,” Da Costa said. “The remainder is therefore for growth, which means that today’s fleet of about 23,000 aircraft is expected to grow just shy of 46,000.”
The 42,060 total breaks down into three categories. Of the aircraft currently in service, 19,820 will be replaced by new deliveries over the forecast period as older jets reach the end of their economic lives. An additional 22,240 will be delivered to support fleet growth as airlines add capacity to meet rising passenger demand. Only 3,490 of the 23,310 aircraft in service at the end of 2025 are expected to still be flying in 2045, meaning 85% of today’s fleet will have been retired and replaced within the next two decades.
The forecast assumes a global passenger traffic CAGR of 3.9% between 2025 and 2045, with total revenue passenger kilometers growing from 9.9 trillion in 2025 to 21.3 trillion by 2045. World GDP growth of 2.6% CAGR over the same period and the addition of 1.7 billion people to the global middle and upper class underpin the demand projection. The 42,060 figure covers passenger aircraft only and does not include freighter deliveries or aircraft with fewer than 100 seats.
33,920 Single-Aisle Jets And 8,140 Widebodies
Single-aisle aircraft account for 80% of the 20-year demand. Airbus forecasts 33,920 narrowbody deliveries between 2026 and 2045, with the in-service fleet growing from 18,740 aircraft at the end of 2025 to 37,080 by 2045. Of that total, 15,580 deliveries replace retiring aircraft and 18,340 support fleet growth. Da Costa noted that “80% of the demand, 33,900 aircraft, is expected to be for single-aisle aircraft.”
The Airbus A321neo has driven a shift in what airlines are ordering within the single-aisle category. In 2011, the A321 represented 7% of the A320 family backlog. By 2026, that figure has reached 75%. Airlines are increasingly selecting larger single-aisle aircraft configured with up to three cabin classes, including lie-flat business class on long-haul narrowbody routes. Single-aisle capacity measured in available seat kilometers is forecast to more than double over the next 20 years at a 4.0% CAGR, driven primarily by growth in the large single-aisle segment. The current single-aisle backlog covers 41% of the 20-year demand.
Widebody demand is smaller in volume but commercially significant. Airbus forecasts 8,140 widebody passenger deliveries over the forecast period, with the in-service fleet growing from 4,570 to 8,470 aircraft. Of those deliveries, 4,240 replace existing aircraft and 3,900 support growth. Only 330 widebodies currently in service are expected to remain flying by 2045, a 93% replacement rate that Da Costa described as only 7% of the current fleet expected to remain in service. The widebody backlog covers 32% of the 20-year demand, leaving a larger share of future orders uncommitted compared to the narrowbody market.
From overhead bunks to cockpit rest areas, the A350-1000 supports its long-haul crews in various ways.
Domestic China is the largest single traffic flow in the 2045 forecast, growing at a 4.7% CAGR and generating more revenue passenger kilometers than any other market in the world. Domestic USA ranks second at 1.8% CAGR, reflecting a mature market that continues to grow but at a slower rate than emerging economies. Domestic India ranks third and is the fastest-growing major market at 9.3% CAGR, with domestic passenger numbers rising from 20.1 million in 2005 to 169.4 million in 2025 and expected to continue expanding as GDP per capita rises and aviation replaces rail on routes where train travel currently takes 30 to 35 hours.
The growth in air travel correlates directly with GDP per capita and the expansion of the global middle class. The upper and middle class population is forecast to grow by 1.7 billion people between 2025 and 2045, reaching approximately 6 billion. Countries where per capita air trips are currently well below 1.0 per year, including India at 0.1, Nigeria at 0.03, Indonesia at 0.3, and Egypt at 0.2, show the largest growth potential as incomes rise and aviation infrastructure develops. By 2045, Airbus expects India’s per capita trip rate to reach 0.6 and Indonesia’s to reach 1.1, still below the 2025 levels of Europe at 1.9 and the United States at 2.1.
The network is expanding alongside the passenger base. The number of city pairs served by scheduled airlines grew from 17,800 in 2005 to 28,000 in 2025. Of those 28,000 routes, 55% did not exist in 2005. Of the 17,800 routes that existed in 2005, a significant number were discontinued before 2025, meaning the network is turning over as well as growing. Since 2005, 532 new airports with single-aisle and widebody operations have opened worldwide, driven by new capital cities, tourism development, logistics hubs, and communities in geographically demanding locations. 78% of the new city pairs involve small cities, reflecting urbanization patterns that are shifting toward smaller population centers rather than concentrating in megacities.
Airlines are using both narrowbody and widebody aircraft on longer routes than they were 20 years ago. The number of single-aisle flights longer than five hours has increased 3.2 times between 2005 and 2025. The number of widebody flights longer than 13 hours has increased four times over the same period. The A321XLR, which entered service in 2025 with a range of 4,700 nautical miles (8,700 km), and the A321LR at 4,000 nautical miles (7,400 km) are the aircraft enabling much of the narrowbody range extension. The A350 family has added 1,900 nautical miles (3,518 km) of range since its entry into service, and the A330 family has added 3,000 nautical miles (5,556 km) through successive variants from the original A330-300 to the A330-900neo.
The premium cabin is growing faster than economy. Between 2005 and 2025, premium class capacity on widebody aircraft, which includes first, business, and premium economy, grew at a 2.9% CAGR compared to 1.4% for economy. Airlines are configuring new widebody deliveries with a larger share of premium seating than they did a decade ago, driven by rising demand from business travelers and a growing segment of leisure passengers willing to pay for a better product. The typical widebody cabin layout in the 2020s allocates more floor space to premium cabins than equivalents from the 2000s, which requires larger aircraft to maintain total seat counts.
The two trends are connected. Airlines flying longer routes generate more revenue per departure from premium passengers who are willing to pay for lie-flat seats and enhanced service on sectors exceeding 10 or 12 hours. The combination of longer range capability and growing premium demand is a driver of the widebody forecast, where Airbus sees increasing demand for medium and large widebody aircraft rather than smaller ones. Widebody capacity growth is forecast at a 3.4% CAGR between 2025 and 2045, with medium and large widebody modules growing faster than the small widebody segment.
A high-density model is set to enter service next year.
The Middle East Recovery And Near-Term Traffic Outlook
The Airbus forecast arrives against a backdrop of near-term disruption in one of the world’s fastest-growing aviation markets. The conflict involving Iran disrupted Middle East airspace beginning in early 2026, grounding or rerouting flights across the region and temporarily reducing the Middle East network to a fraction of its pre-conflict capacity. FlightRadar24 data included in the Airbus presentation shows Middle East passenger aircraft movements per day dropped to approximately 25% of their January 1, 2026, baseline by early March. As of early July 2026, the network had recovered to 80-90% of pre-conflict levels, with airlines progressively restoring services.
Despite the Middle East disruption, US tariff uncertainty, and the ongoing effects of Russian airspace closures that continue to force rerouting on Europe-Asia traffic, Airbus forecasts global air traffic growth of 2.1% for full-year 2026 compared to 2025. That figure accounts for the disruptions already experienced in the first half of the year. World air traffic reached approximately 9.9 trillion revenue passenger kilometers in 2025, having fully recovered from the pandemic-era low of approximately 3.5 trillion in 2020. Airbus’ data shows that global traffic has recovered from every previous disruption, including the Gulf crisis, the Asian financial crisis, September 11, SARS, and the 2008 financial crisis, and is now tracking above the trajectory that Airbus’ own GMF 2000 forecast predicted 26 years ago.
The 20-year forecast projects traffic reaching 21.3 trillion RPK by 2045 at a 3.9% CAGR. That represents a doubling of global passenger traffic over the forecast period. Da Costa summarized the outlook: “Over the next 20 years, we still expect to see a very strong air transport market with just over 42,000 passenger aircraft needed to satisfy the replacement needs of today’s fleet, as well as the expected growth that airlines need to cater for.” The fleet is expected to grow from 23,310 aircraft at the end of 2025 to 45,550 by 2045, with 82% of the global fleet consisting of new-generation aircraft types by 2035, up from 39% in 2025 and 3% in 2015.
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