The imminent threat that Russia faces is the exhaustion of imported civil aircraft due to the end of their service life or the unavailability of spare parts. This potential aviation crisis stands on the shoulders of a domestic airplane industry that is struggling to produce aircraft.
The situation prompts the question: has the program failed? There’s little to suggest otherwise. The much-hyped domestic aircraft, Superjet NEW, and MS-21, have yet to materialize beyond the drawing board. Meanwhile, Russia’s factories seem incapable of producing even the Soviet Tu-214 — a model that first took flight on January 2, 1989.
Despite a plan for three Tu-214s to be delivered to clients in 2023, none were. The prospective buyers remain unclear, but it’s a negligible detail. Aeroflot’s ongoing negotiations with the United Aircraft Corporation [UAC] point to a promising partnership yet to prove successful.
The pressure of these stalled plans seems to be detracting from progress towards the “new” Superjet and MC-21. The MC-21 is still without an engine, although there are preliminary plans to produce several PD-14s in 2023.
In light of these setbacks, Russia’s authorities assert ambitious plans to manufacture 600 airplanes by 2030. This ambition comes with a hefty financial backing of an extra 280 billion rubles. It’s intended to revive the “decaying” Il-96−300 and Tu-214, alongside the Soviet-era Il-114.
As Viktor Gorbachev, Director General of the Civil Aviation Association points out: “With our current planes — Boeing and Airbus, we have seven or eight years’ worth. The Superjet and MS-21 may fly another year before they get certified… there are over a hundred subcontractors! And all this requires additional production capacity and people.”
The predicament emphasizes that just throwing money at the problem won’t yield airplanes. Does 280 billion rubles towards factories translate into actual aircraft?
The “import substitution” that started following the annexation of Crimea ten years ago has yet to yield satisfactory results. It appears that “Strategy 2020” and similar projects have remained just that – ideas on the drawing board. Despite precedence, Russian President Vladimir Putin remains optimistic.
“By 2030, more than 500 aircraft of various types should be produced per program: 270 MS-21 aircraft, 142 Superjet-100 aircraft, and 115 Tu-214 aircraft,” the head of Rostech, Sergey Chemezov, announced at the end of 2024. This statement was a disclaimer to Putin’s previous ambitious goal.
Despite these official numbers being floated, a disheartening truth emerges — without imported spare parts, even the simplest passenger car cannot be assembled. Putting together a Russian avionics system is a distant dream under current conditions.
Today, Russia struggles to generate parts for even its dormant Soviet-era planes. It seems the knowledge and skill have evaporated, leaving these once glorious birds grounded. Despite this scarcity, no effort seems to be underway to fix this aviation tragedy.
Back in 2014, Putin advised that Russia must “run in ten years, or we will be crushed”. Now facing the reality of this statement, Russia stands on the brink of an aviation crisis. The second warning came in Spring 2022 — a call that has been duly ignored.
To sum it up, at best, Russia can produce a handful of aircraft against its ambitious 280 billion ruble investment. This colossal investment would only yield An-2 substitutes, yet another forgotten design. Indeed, by current calculations, such returns would be a testament to the country’s disheartened aviation industry.
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