The long-awaited question of which airframer will build the U.S. Navy’s next fighter jet has finally been answered. In a September 29 release, the Pentagon identified Boeing as the awardee of a $20 billion contract to develop the carrier-based F/A-XX Strike Fighter.
Edging out competitor Northrop Grumman, Boeing is now positioned to dominate the future U.S. fighter market as the prime contractor selected for both known U.S. military sixth-generation fighter projects. In March 2025, Boeing received an engineering and manufacturing development (EMD) award for the U.S. Air Force F-47, similarly estimated at $20 billion.
For the sea service, F/A-XX will begin replacing the carrier wing’s fighter workhorses, F/A-18E/F Super Hornets and EA-18G Growlers, sometime during the next decade. Fittingly for Boeing, Super Hornet and Growler production is expected to end in 2027. On the same day as the F/A-XX announcement, Boeing was awarded a $16.7 million contract to support the shutdown of the F/A-18E/F and EA-18G lines.
The F/A-XX selection contributes to a banner year for Boeing’s fighter business. In April, the Air Force revealed a new F-15EX fleet target of 267 fighters, more than doubling the previous objective. In late August, Boeing earned a massive contract vehicle with a $131 billion ceiling for F-15 production and sustainment for U.S. and global customers. With a third Boeing fighter-related contract announced on September 29, the Air Force finalized lot 7 F-15EX production for $2.38 billion.
Despite the recent momentum in multibillion-dollar contracts, Boeing and the U.S. industrial base more broadly have faced public concerns since last year about the capacity to produce two simultaneous sixth-generation fighters. Boeing’s leadership has previously rejected that notion. Steve Parker, CEO of Boeing Defense, Space & Security, directly addressed the issue again in Boeing’s F/A-XX press release: “Delivering two advanced fighters in parallel was always our plan, and we invested accordingly. We are ready and able to build multiple concurrent future combat aircraft franchise programs.”
Still, manufacturing concerns are not entirely unfounded. Last fall, a Boeing labor strike at its St. Louis facility likely contributed to fewer F-15 deliveries in 2025 (nine) than in 2024 (14). With the Air Force’s F-15EX planned fleet increase, Boeing is working to ramp up capacity to build two units per month. Through the first half of 2026, Boeing reported four F-15 model deliveries, a rate that could jeopardize matching last year’s total. Boeing’s third-quarter delivery figures, expected in October, will offer a checkpoint on whether it can begin scaling up F-15EX output with two clean-sheet programs now on the horizon.
A former naval officer and Seahawk helicopter pilot, Jon currently leads the Military Aerospace and Weapons Systems group at Forecast International. He specializes in current and emerging military fixed and rotary-wing aircraft. With over a decade of experience in military aviation, operations, and education, he forecasts a diverse range of defense and naval systems.
Influenced by his time as a former Presidential Management Fellow and International Trade Specialist at the Department of Commerce, Jon gained insights into government operations and global markets.
Before joining Forecast International, he served as an NROTC instructor and Adjunct Assistant Professor at the University of Texas, teaching undergraduate courses in naval history, navigation, defense organization, and naval operations and warfare.
