- Could Istanbul Airport Enter the World’s Top Five in 2027?
- Fourth Runway at Istanbul Airport: The Key to a New Record?
- Istanbul Airport Could Reach 95 Million Passengers in 2027
Dear readers,
The fourth main runway currently under construction at Istanbul Airport will become one of the most important elements of a new capacity era that will determine whether the airport can maintain its position among the world’s leading global aviation hubs.
Does a new runway really bring more passengers?
The answer is not as simple as it may initially appear. Runways do not generate passengers. Runways ensure that when passenger demand grows, it can be accommodated without being hindered by delays, long taxiing times, slot congestion and operational disruptions.
A 52 Million-Passenger Start with the Second Runway
The first phase of Istanbul Airport opened on October 29, 2018, with a system of two independent main runways. Following the completion of the major relocation from Atatürk Airport, large-scale scheduled operations began in April 2019.
For this reason, it is not possible to measure the second runway’s impact on passenger numbers through a conventional “before and after” comparison. Istanbul’s main air transport hub was transferred to an entirely new airport together with its terminal, flight network and passenger traffic.
In 2019, its first full year of operations, Istanbul Airport served approximately 52 million passengers. In the same year, it ranked 28th among the world’s airports.
The real leap would come later.
The Third Runway Opened at the Wrong Time but Proved Its Value at the Right Time
Istanbul Airport’s third independent runway entered service on June 14, 2020. Statements issued by Türkiye’s General Directorate of State Airports Authority, DHMİ, indicated that the new runway would increase hourly landing capacity by more than 50 percent and reduce taxiing times by approximately half.
However, the third runway encountered one of the worst possible moments in aviation history.
The world was closing its borders because of the COVID-19 pandemic, airlines were grounding their fleets and international passenger traffic was contracting on a historic scale. Istanbul Airport’s passenger numbers also fell from approximately 52 million in 2019 to around 23.4 million in 2020.
Looking at this picture and saying, “The third runway opened and passenger numbers declined,” would be technically correct but analytically entirely wrong.
The decline was caused not by the runway, but by global travel restrictions.
The true value of the third runway became apparent when global aviation began reopening. Istanbul Airport reached 37.2 million passengers in 2021, 64.5 million in 2022, 76 million in 2023 and 80.4 million in 2024.
The year 2025 was completed with approximately 84.4 million passengers.
In other words, the third runway did not create passenger growth on its own. However, it provided the necessary airside infrastructure for Istanbul Airport to rise from the 50 million-passenger level to more than 80 million within a few years.
The distinction is important.
Triple Operations Revealed More Than a New Runway Could
The simultaneous triple independent runway operations launched at Istanbul Airport on April 17, 2025, were also occasionally perceived by the public as the opening of a new runway.
However, no physically new runway was placed into service. Instead, a new airspace, approach and air traffic control arrangement was introduced, allowing the three existing independent runways to be used simultaneously and independently of one another. This enabled three aircraft to land or take off at the same time.
The initial results of the implementation demonstrated that how runways are used can be just as decisive as the number of runways.
On July 2, 2025, an operational record was set with 81 departures within a single hour. The triple-runway system aimed to reduce departure and arrival taxiing times, decrease delays and enable more flights to be managed during peak periods.
Official assessments regarding the system’s first year stated that some approach routes had been shortened by approximately 30 nautical miles, resulting in average fuel savings of 352 kilograms and a reduction of 1,112 kilograms of carbon dioxide per flight.
These improvements create the operational environment necessary for airlines to schedule additional frequencies to Istanbul.
The competitiveness of a major transfer hub is not measured solely by the number of passengers it handles. The ability of connecting flights to operate on time, the length of time aircraft spend waiting in departure queues and the extent to which chains of delays can be prevented are at least as important as passenger numbers.
How Did Istanbul Rise from 28th to Eighth Place?
ACI World data clearly demonstrates Istanbul Airport’s global rise.
Istanbul ranked 28th worldwide in 2019 with approximately 52 million passengers. It climbed to seventh place in 2022, 2023 and 2024. In 2025, it became the world’s eighth-busiest airport with 84,437,710 passengers.
Rising from 28th to eighth place within six years is not ordinary growth.
However, it would also be incorrect to explain this rise solely through the number of runways.
Turkish Airlines’ extensive network, Istanbul’s geographical location between Europe, Asia, Africa and the Middle East, its strong transfer-passenger model and the slower post-pandemic recovery of some competing hubs played decisive roles in this leap.
The runways prevented this growth from encountering physical limitations.
A closer look at the figures in the 2025 rankings reveals just how sensitive the competition is. The difference between Istanbul and seventh-ranked London Heathrow was only approximately 44,000 passengers. The difference between Istanbul and ninth-ranked Guangzhou was approximately 855,000 passengers.
The total difference between fourth-ranked Dallas/Fort Worth and ninth-ranked Guangzhou was approximately 2.1 million passengers.
For this reason, Istanbul Airport gaining or losing several hundred thousand passengers within a single year could result in a change of several positions in the global rankings.
What Will the Fourth Runway Change?
The fourth main runway is planned to enter service in the second half of 2026. Through terminal expansion investments carried out by İGA, the current nominal passenger capacity of 90 million is intended to be increased to 120 million.
At this point, two separate capacity increases must be distinguished from one another.
The fourth runway will increase airside capacity, departure flexibility and operational resilience.
Terminal investments will expand check-in, security, passport control, baggage handling, passenger boarding bridge and gate capacity.
Therefore, saying, “The fourth runway will increase capacity from 90 million to 120 million,” would be incomplete. A more accurate statement would be:
The fourth runway will remove the airside bottleneck, while the terminal expansion will remove the passenger-processing bottleneck.
The new runway’s planned east-west orientation will also provide Istanbul with additional departure capacity and greater operational flexibility under different wind conditions. Taxiing distances and departure queues are expected to decrease, particularly for flights heading east.
Whether these advantages translate into higher passenger numbers will depend on airlines scheduling additional services.
If Turkish Airlines expands its fleet and frequencies, foreign carriers increase their Istanbul services, the terminal expansion is completed on schedule and global demand remains strong, the fourth runway could support a significant increase in passenger numbers.
If these developments do not occur, the runway may initially remain an investment that primarily reduces delays and improves operational reliability.
Are 95 Million Passengers Possible in 2027?
During the first six months of 2026, Istanbul Airport served 39.922 million passengers. A total of 262,271 aircraft movements were recorded during the same period.
The scenarios that may emerge within the scope of my research indicate that the fourth runway and terminal investments could affect 2027 traffic in three different ways.
Under the conservative scenario, Istanbul Airport could reach approximately 88.5 million passengers and remain within the eighth-to-tenth-place range in the global rankings.
Under the moderate scenario, passenger numbers could rise to around 91 million. In this case, Istanbul could potentially rank between sixth and eighth worldwide.
Under the optimistic scenario, passenger numbers could approach 95 million through the combined effects of strong transfer demand, new routes, fleet growth and the terminal expansion entering service. Such a performance could move Istanbul into the fourth-to-seventh-place range in the global rankings.
I would like to emphasise that these figures are not official forecasts, but scenarios based on data and capacity assumptions.
Furthermore, the outcome of the global rankings does not depend solely on Istanbul’s growth. The growth rates of Atlanta, Dubai, Tokyo, Dallas, Shanghai, Chicago, Heathrow and Guangzhou will also determine Istanbul’s position.
Absolute success and relative success are not the same thing in airport rankings.
Istanbul may increase its passenger numbers but still fall in the rankings if its competitors grow more rapidly. This happened in 2025: Istanbul increased its passenger numbers but fell from seventh to eighth place.
Runways Are Not the Cause of Growth, but Its Insurance
The fundamental lesson to be drawn from Istanbul Airport’s development is clear:
The second runway established the initial scale of the new airport.
The third runway enabled the rapid post-pandemic recovery to be accommodated physically.
Simultaneous triple-runway operations demonstrated that the existing infrastructure could be used more efficiently.
The fourth runway will pave the way for future growth as Istanbul approaches the threshold of 90 million passengers.
However, no runway can create millions of new passengers on its own.
New passengers are generated by airlines, connectivity networks, tourism, trade, prices, visa policies and Istanbul’s attractiveness as a global transfer hub. The role of runways is to ensure that the resulting demand does not remain waiting on the ground.
For this reason, the success of the fourth runway will be measured by how much taxiing times are reduced, how many new frequencies are added to schedules, the extent to which connecting passengers are able to catch their flights on time and whether Istanbul can grow faster than competing hubs.
The fourth runway will not automatically carry Istanbul Airport into the world’s top five.
However, when combined with the right terminal investments, a strong airline network and sustainable passenger demand, it will remove one of the most important infrastructure barriers preventing Istanbul from joining the race for a place among the world’s top five airports.
I wish all aviation professionals a safe and peaceful week.
For your comments and suggestions: Mevlüt Zor / mevlutzorr@gmail.com
