Dear readers,
Farnborough 2026 has come to an end.
The initial picture reflected in the public sphere after the show was quite simple: Boeing 173 aircraft, Airbus 154 aircraft…
Looking at these figures, it is possible to say that Boeing finished the show ahead. However, in the aviation industry, the footnotes beneath the figures are just as important as the numbers reflected in the headlines.
That is because Boeing’s announced total of 173 aircraft and Airbus’s announced total of 154 aircraft do not consist of transactions with the same legal and commercial status.
For this reason, the following correction needs to be made from the outset:
Boeing did not receive 173 firm orders at Farnborough, nor did Airbus receive 154 firm orders.
The two manufacturers announced commercial transactions covering those numbers of aircraft. These totals include not only new and firm orders, but also aircraft that had previously entered the order book without the customer being disclosed, commitments that had not yet been converted into firm contracts, memoranda of understanding and purchase rights.
The figures may have put Boeing ahead. However, to understand the true outcome of the show, it is necessary to examine how many of these aircraft were genuinely new and firm orders.
The Reality Behind the Numbers
Of Airbus’s publicly reported total of 154 aircraft, 131 consisted of new and clearly identified firm orders. In addition, the identities of customers for 14 aircraft that had previously entered the order book were disclosed at the show. Nine aircraft remained at the memorandum-of-understanding stage.
The picture on the Boeing side was more complicated.
Boeing’s total of 173 aircraft included at least 125 new and clearly identified firm orders. In addition, 16 aircraft that had previously entered the order book were announced again after their customers were disclosed. Approximately 32 aircraft had not yet been tied to final contracts during the show.
Depending on when and under what status the Riyadh Air transaction was entered into the order book, some industry databases calculate Boeing’s firm-order figure at a higher level. However, even this difference reveals the fundamental problem:
It is not healthy to compare air show orders using a single aggregate figure.
The publicly announced 173-versus-154 comparison shows the total number of commercial transactions disclosed at the show. It does not mean that all of those transactions were new and firm orders.
Therefore, declaring the winner of the show by looking only at these two figures would be an excessive simplification of the aviation industry’s complex order system.
The Show’s Most Important Customer: SMBC
In my view, the most striking development at Farnborough 2026 was that SMBC Aviation Capital, one of the world’s leading aircraft leasing companies, placed orders for 100 aircraft each with Airbus and Boeing on the same day.
SMBC ordered 100 aircraft from Airbus, comprising 65 A321neos and 35 A320neos. On the Boeing side, it ordered 60 737-10s and 40 737-8s.
A total of 200 aircraft…
At first glance, these orders may suggest that the competition between Airbus and Boeing ended in a draw. However, SMBC’s choice carries a more important message than that.
Major leasing companies no longer want to remain dependent on a single manufacturer, a single engine family or a single delivery programme. They are spreading their risks because of production delays, engine problems, supply-chain bottlenecks and certification uncertainty.
SMBC’s decision to place equally sized orders with Airbus and Boeing was not the result of unconditional confidence in the two manufacturers. On the contrary, it reflected a balanced approach to managing industry risks.
Today, the most important asset for an aircraft leasing company is an aircraft that will be delivered on the correct date.
No matter how valuable an aircraft may appear in an order book, if its delivery date is uncertain, it cannot fulfil an airline’s growth plans.
Airbus’s Strongest Weapon: The A321neo
For Airbus, the strongest product at the show was once again the A321neo.
SMBC’s selection of 65 aircraft and flynas’s order for 20 aircraft once again demonstrated the A321neo’s weight in the narrow-body aircraft market.
The A321neo is not a conventional single-aisle aircraft. Thanks to its higher passenger capacity and extended-range advantage, it is moving into a market previously served by the Boeing 757. At the same time, it offers a lower-cost alternative to airlines that do not want to operate wide-body aircraft on low-density long-haul routes.
For this reason, the A321neo continues to be Airbus’s most important commercial weapon against Boeing.
Airbus’s other significant success at the show was the A350-1000.
Riyadh Air’s order for six additional A350-1000s and Philippine Airlines’ memorandum covering nine aircraft showed that the A350-1000 is gaining more ground in the long-haul market.
In particular, the certification and delivery delays affecting the Boeing 777X programme are creating an important opportunity for Airbus.
Today, the A350-1000 is being marketed as an alternative to the delayed 777-9 with a more predictable delivery schedule.
Discussions suggesting that Airbus is evaluating a larger A350 derivative also indicate that this strategy will continue.
Airbus is trying to fill the commercial space created by Boeing’s delays.
Boeing Has a Bigger Problem Than Finding Orders
One of Boeing’s most important gains at the show was SMBC’s order for 60 737-10s.
The 737-10 is a model that has not yet completed its certification process. Despite this, an order for 60 aircraft from one of the world’s leading leasing companies is important in terms of confidence in the model’s long-term commercial future.
Luxair’s decision to convert two 737-10 options into firm orders was also noteworthy in this respect.
However, Boeing’s problem is not finding orders.
The real challenge facing Boeing is whether it can fulfil those orders in line with certification, production and delivery schedules.
The certification timelines of the 737 MAX 7 and MAX 10, delays in the 777X programme, 787 delivery rates, production quality and supply-chain problems continue to be the main issues confronting Boeing.
Boeing’s order book may be full. However, the success of a manufacturer is measured by whether it can deliver the aircraft it has sold on the promised date and at the required quality.
Boeing’s order figure at Farnborough was higher than Airbus’s. Yet the company’s real success will be determined by how regularly these orders emerge from its production lines in the coming years.
Boeing’s real race will be won in the factory.
Boeing Appeared Ahead in Wide-Bodies, but the Picture Was Complicated
Boeing announced more transactions involving wide-body aircraft.
AerCap’s order for 15 787-9s reinforced the 787 family’s strong position in the leasing market. Uganda Airlines’ order for four 787-9s was also important for Boeing’s presence in Africa.
Riyadh Air’s announcement covering 28 Boeing 787s was one of the most widely discussed transactions at the show. However, not all 28 aircraft were new and firm orders.
Eleven of the aircraft had previously been included among orders from unidentified customers. The remaining 17 aircraft were expected to be added to the order system once the transactions were completed. The agreement also included the conversion of some aircraft to the 787-10 model.
A similar situation applied to Philippine Airlines.
The airline announced a commitment for 15 787-10s, subject to a final contract. An additional purchase opportunity for five aircraft was also included in the agreement. However, at the time of the announcement, these 15 aircraft had not yet entered Boeing’s firm order book.
It can therefore be said that Boeing had a strong show in wide-body aircraft. However, it would not be correct to classify every aircraft announced as a new firm order.
MSC Air Cargo’s order for five 777-8Fs was also not a new order. The aircraft had previously entered Boeing’s order book on behalf of an unidentified customer. What happened at the show was the disclosure of the customer’s identity.
Nevertheless, the selection of the 777-8F by a global logistics company such as MSC was an important development for the programme’s commercial reputation.
The Real Battle at Farnborough Was Fought Over Engines
A total of 904 engine orders were announced during the first four days of the show.
This figure tells us something very clearly:
The aviation industry’s main bottleneck is not aircraft fuselage production.
Engine availability, access to spare engines, the length of time engines can remain on-wing, maintenance capacity and parts supply have become at least as important as aircraft deliveries in airline fleet planning.
IndiGo’s agreement covering more than 1,000 LEAP-1A engines, BOC Aviation’s order covering up to 300 CFM engines and British Airways’ selection of Pratt & Whitney GTF engines for up to 63 A320neo-family aircraft demonstrated the scale of the engine business at the show.
There was also a noteworthy detail.
Even on the ADS website, two different figures were published for engine orders on the first day of the show. One section stated 446 engines, while another stated 466.
Even this seemingly minor inconsistency shows that air show figures need to be read carefully.
Ultimately, aircraft were sold at Farnborough 2026. However, the industry’s real struggle centred on engines, spare parts, maintenance capacity and on-time delivery.
For an airline, the delivery date of the engine and the number of months the aircraft may remain grounded for maintenance are just as important as the aircraft it has ordered.
The Main Message of the Five-Day Show
The first day was the busiest in terms of order announcements.
SMBC’s combined order for 200 aircraft from Airbus and Boeing, Riyadh Air’s A350-1000 and Boeing 787 transactions, Philippine Airlines’ 787-10 commitment and helicopter agreements shaped the agenda on the first day.
The main message of the first day was clear: major leasing companies and airlines are trying to secure delivery slots for the coming years today.
On the second day, training, maintenance and technical infrastructure came to the forefront alongside aircraft sales.
In addition to announcements from AerCap, Uganda Airlines, Luxair and Philippine Airlines, the Turkish Airlines–HAVELSAN and Turkish Technic–GE Aerospace agreements, as well as programme announcements from Turkish Aerospace, attracted attention.
On the third day, Airbus stood out with flynas’s order for 20 A321neos and five A330-900s. The disclosure of BermudAir as the customer for an order covering 10 A220-300s was also important for Airbus’s A220 programme.
The fact that Boeing did not announce a major commercial aircraft order on the third day showed that the competition had largely taken shape during the first two days.
By the fourth day, the debate had shifted from how many aircraft had been sold to how those aircraft would be produced.
By the end of the first four trade days, 353 firm aircraft orders, 904 engines and £62.9 billion worth of commercial agreements had been announced. The estimated contribution to the United Kingdom’s economy was stated to be £10.8 billion.
On the final day of the show, the “Pioneers of Tomorrow” programme brought together young engineers, aspiring pilots, students and industry representatives.
This section showed that the show was also concerned with the workforce of the future.
That is because the aviation industry needs pilots, engineers, technicians and software specialists just as much as it needs aircraft.
Embraer Is Defending Its Own Market
The competition between Airbus and Boeing was the main focus of the show. However, Embraer’s performance should not be overlooked.
Abra Group’s firm order for 20 E195-E2s, Binter’s selection of five E195-E2s, Luxair’s firm order for three E195-E2s and Fuji Dream Airlines’ purchase of two E175s showed that Embraer maintained its strength in the market for regional aircraft with 100 to 150 seats.
The absence of a new-production Boeing model in this class, combined with Airbus’s gradual movement of the A220 into a higher-capacity segment, leaves Embraer with significant room to manoeuvre.
Embraer may not announce orders on the same scale as Airbus and Boeing. However, it continues to maintain a strong position in a market where competition is more limited.
For the company, this is at least as valuable as high-volume orders.
What Did Türkiye Do at the Show?
Farnborough 2026 was not merely a product exhibition for Türkiye.
Among the Turkish companies whose official participation or product displays could be confirmed were Turkish Aerospace, ASELSAN, TEI and Alp Aviation.
Turkish Aerospace displayed a full-scale mock-up of HÜRJET in the static area and presented the KAAN, HÜRJET, T-70 and T-925 programmes.
ASELSAN participated with radar, electro-optical, electronic-warfare, communications and munition solutions.
TEI introduced the TF6000, TS1400, PD170, TJ90, TJ65 and PG50 engine families.
Alp Aviation showcased its precision aerospace components and structural manufacturing capabilities.
In addition, Turkish Airlines, HAVELSAN, Turkish Technic and Baykar were also part of the show’s agenda through agreements and technology announcements.
A distinction must be made correctly here.
It would not be accurate to say that all of these organisations opened separate stands. Some participated through their partners’ stands, signing ceremonies, press conferences or programme announcements.
However, when we look at the overall picture, we see that Türkiye’s visibility at Farnborough did not consist solely of defence platforms.
There was a broader Turkish aviation presence extending from training to maintenance, from engines to avionics, from manned-unmanned mission systems to sustainable-fuel financing.
Turkish Airlines Is Not Only Expanding Its Fleet
The agreements signed by Turkish Airlines with CAE and HAVELSAN were among the most important developments at the show from Türkiye’s perspective.
The multi-year agreement with CAE covers five full-flight simulators, two flight-training devices and options for two additional simulators. The systems will serve the training requirements of the A321neo, A350 and Boeing 787 fleets.
The agreement with HAVELSAN covers a total of 12 systems, consisting of eight full-flight simulators and four flight-training devices.
Turkish Airlines’ growth plans cannot be achieved simply by purchasing new aircraft. Every new aircraft requires more pilots, instructors, technicians, maintenance personnel and training infrastructure.
The strategic aspect of the HAVELSAN agreement is that Turkish Airlines is assuming the role of launch and principal user for a domestic technology company.
When a major airline uses a domestically developed system, it becomes easier to improve, scale and export that system to other countries.
At this point, Turkish Airlines holds a strategic position as a user supporting the expansion of Türkiye’s simulator-production capacity.
Participation in the SAFFA initiative was also noteworthy. However, it would not be accurate to present this development as Turkish Airlines directly purchasing sustainable aviation fuel.
The announced transaction represented participation in the investment and financing ecosystem for sustainable-fuel projects rather than a fuel-supply agreement.
Because the investment amount, the volume of fuel to be provided and the projects to be supported were not disclosed, the concrete impact of the agreement will need to be assessed in the future.
Turkish Technic Is Moving into High-Value-Added Maintenance
The five-year service and licence agreement signed between Turkish Technic and GE Aerospace was one of the less-discussed but strategically important developments at the show.
The agreement covers the maintenance, repair and overhaul of DCDU equipment used in communication between aircraft cockpits and ground systems.
GE Aerospace will provide test equipment, technical data, spare parts, licences and engineering support. Turkish Technic will provide authorised maintenance services at its facilities in Istanbul.
Türkiye has long aimed to become a regional centre for aircraft maintenance. However, the real added value lies in developing maintenance capabilities for avionics, electronics and software-intensive equipment.
This agreement shows that Turkish Technic is moving towards maintenance fields requiring higher levels of technology.
KAAN’s Most Sensitive Issue Is Still the Engine
Statements made by Turkish Aerospace regarding KAAN at Farnborough once again brought Türkiye’s fighter-aircraft programme into focus.
According to information provided by Turkish Aerospace management, 10 F110 engines intended for use in prototypes have arrived in Türkiye. Approximately 80 additional engines are planned for the serial-production phase, and the 2028 target for the first delivery remains in place.
These statements are important.
However, it must also be stated clearly that access to foreign engines remains one of the most sensitive issues in the KAAN programme.
Türkiye is developing the fighter-aircraft platform. However, the serial-production schedule depends on engine licences, export permits, production capacity and the progress of the test programme.
Designing a fighter aircraft is a major achievement. Yet dependence on foreign engines makes the programme’s timeline vulnerable to political and commercial decisions.
Türkiye’s long-term independence depends on these platforms being able to operate with domestically produced engines.
For this reason, the engine family displayed by TEI at Farnborough may have represented the most strategic part of the show for Türkiye.
The platform is visible. The engine is independence itself.
ASELSAN Is No Longer Selling a Single Product, but an Entire Mission Chain
ASELSAN’s approach at the show was also noteworthy.
The MURAD and FULMAR radars, ASELFLIR electro-optical systems, ANTIDOT electronic-warfare solutions, data links, communication systems and TOLUN munition family are all important products in their own right.
However, ASELSAN’s real strategy is not to sell a single radar or camera.
The company is trying to offer the entire mission chain of an aerial platform, extending from detecting a target and protecting itself electronically to transferring data to other platforms and striking the target.
This approach is important for Türkiye’s transformation in defence exports from a platform seller into a provider of systems and mission architectures.
That is because the country that wins on the battlefield of the future will be the one capable of operating aircraft, sensors, munitions, electronic warfare and data networks within the same mission architecture.
The Baykar–Leonardo Cooperation Carries a Message Bigger Than a Sale
Tests conducted by Baykar and Leonardo involving manned-unmanned teaming were also among Farnborough’s important technology topics.
During the tests, in which a Leonardo M-346 aircraft controlled two Bayraktar KIZILELMA aircraft within the same mission network, the focus was on autonomous formation flight, joint mission planning, management of unmanned platforms from a manned aircraft and integration with NATO mission networks.
This development was not a direct aircraft sale or export contract.
However, it was extremely important in demonstrating Baykar’s future strategy.
Baykar does not want to remain merely a company that exports unmanned aerial vehicles. It aims to become an integrated technology partner within Europe’s fighter-aircraft, trainer-aircraft and mission-systems ecosystem.
KIZILELMA’s entry into the same mission network as the M-346 was one of the first signs of this transformation.
Who Won the Show?
It is not easy to name a single company as the winner of Farnborough 2026.
Boeing moved ahead in the total number of aircraft reflected in public announcements. However, the status of its announced transactions was more complicated than Airbus’s.
Airbus had a strong show in terms of the quality of its new and firm orders, the market strength of the A321neo and the ground gained by the A350-1000 in the long-haul segment.
Boeing received important commercial support, particularly for the 737-10 and 787 families. However, the company’s real test will be certification, production quality and on-time delivery.
Embraer succeeded in remaining strong within its own market segment.
Engine manufacturers once again demonstrated that they are at the centre of the aviation industry’s unseen but most critical competitive arena.
From Türkiye’s perspective, Farnborough was not merely a show where a HÜRJET mock-up or defence products were displayed.
Turkish Airlines’ training investments, HAVELSAN’s simulators, Turkish Technic’s avionics-maintenance capabilities, ASELSAN’s mission-chain approach, TEI’s engine work and the Baykar–Leonardo cooperation showed that Türkiye is trying to build a broader aviation ecosystem.
However, we should not be satisfied merely with applauding ourselves.
Türkiye is developing platforms, producing mission systems, expanding its maintenance capabilities and entering international partnerships in unmanned systems. Nevertheless, serious obstacles still need to be overcome in engines, certain critical subsystems, certification and access to the global supply chain.
The clearest message of Farnborough 2026 was this:
Receiving orders is important, producing is more important, and delivering on time is the most important of all.
Agreements worth billions of dollars can be signed in exhibition halls. Hundreds of aircraft can be announced in front of cameras. However, real success is measured on the day those aircraft leave the factory and begin operating scheduled airline services.
Aircraft may therefore have been sold at Farnborough.
However, the real race between Airbus and Boeing, among engine manufacturers and within Türkiye’s goal of achieving independence in aviation is only just beginning.
I wish all aviation professionals a safe and peaceful week.
For your comments and suggestions: Mevlüt Zor / mevlutzorr@gmail.com
