Dear readers,
The rules of the global defense industry are changing rapidly.
There was a time when countries would announce the first flight of a new fighter jet, the first launch of a new missile, or a newly developed radar system as a major technological victory. Of course, each of these is still extremely important. However, the main question facing the defense industry today has changed.
No one asks anymore, “Can you produce this?”
We are now faced with the question: “How many can you produce, how quickly can you deliver them, and for how many years can you sustain this?”
When we look at the developments during the August 3–9 period, we see that both Türkiye and the world’s major defense companies are moving toward the same point: Mass production capacity is becoming a strategic weapon in its own right.
In July, our defense and aerospace exports increased by 14.4 percent, reaching $1.12 billion. Exports in the January–July period rose to $5.787 billion, while exports over the last 12 months increased to $11.2 billion.
It is worth dwelling on these figures for a moment.
Because Türkiye is moving beyond being a country that exports a few successful products in the defense industry. What we now have before us is a large industrial ecosystem that is beginning to reach different geographies, expanding its exports and, in parallel, being forced to increase its production capacity.
I believe the real test for the Turkish defense industry will begin in the coming period.
Winning an order is a success.
But delivering that order on time is an even greater success.
Moreover, defense exports do not end on the day the product is delivered. A relationship must be established that continues for years, covering everything from training and maintenance to spare parts, software updates, ammunition and modernization.
Türkiye is entering the second stage.
We can see one of the strongest examples of this at ASELSAN.
ASELSAN’s revenue in the first six months of 2026 increased by 25 percent in real terms, reaching 88.5 billion Turkish lira. The company’s new business volume increased by 72 percent to $4.9 billion, while its backlog reached $23.2 billion.
Perhaps even more important than these figures is the increase in capacity investments.
ASELSAN’s capacity investments increased by 195 percent to $323 million, while R&D expenditures rose by 41 percent to $804 million. New smart ammunition, air defense and underwater production and testing centers were also commissioned.
In my view, it would not be wrong to say that ASELSAN’s figures show Türkiye is building the industrial infrastructure required to produce the technologies it has developed in large quantities.
When we look at today’s warfare environment, we can better understand just how important this is.
Having a very good radar is not enough.
Having an advanced electronic warfare system is not enough.
Nor is it enough for your air defense missile to hit its target.
If you do not have the infrastructure to produce hundreds, and when necessary thousands, of these systems, the sustainability of your technological superiority becomes questionable in a prolonged crisis or war.
The world’s largest defense companies are pursuing exactly the same objective today.
It is no coincidence that Northrop Grumman announced two multi-year framework agreements worth more than $3 billion to accelerate interceptor missile production. Boeing’s first $75 million production step for JDAM Long Range munitions is important for the same reason.
The Americans are also trying to expand their production capacity.
So are we.
The difference, of course, lies in the scale of the companies, their budgets and their industrial infrastructures built over many years. But the direction is the same.
That is why ASELSAN’s $23.2 billion backlog should not simply be viewed as a financial success. This figure represents an enormous responsibility in terms of production facilities, suppliers, engineers, testing centers, critical electronic components and logistics infrastructure.
If your order book is growing, your factory has to grow as well.
I believe one of the most important words for the Turkish defense industry in the coming years will be capacity.
Another important example is STM.
The launch in Istanbul of TUNKU OSMAN JEWA, the third ship in the Littoral Mission Ship Batch-2 program being carried out for Malaysia, may look like a conventional shipbuilding story.
However, I view the issue somewhat differently.
Selling three ships to Malaysia is not simply the export of three warships.
You are entering a country’s navy.
Then comes maintenance.
Then modernization.
Then weapon systems.
Then radar.
Then electronic warfare.
Then the combat management system.
Then training.
Then the need for new platforms emerges.
In defense exports, the real value often begins to emerge after the first contract.
The fact that STM has now launched the final vessel in the three-ship series under the Malaysia program is a development that should not be underestimated in terms of Türkiye’s reference position in the Asia-Pacific defense market.
Türkiye’s next objective in defense exports should not simply be to sell more products.
Once you enter a country, you need to become a permanent defense industry partner in that country.
I believe the truly large export figures will come from this model.
Another advantage Türkiye has is the enormous domestic market created on the civil aviation side.
Turkish Airlines carried 9.5 million passengers in July. Across Türkiye’s airports, 138,758,202 passengers were served during the first seven months of the year. During the same period, Istanbul Airport hosted more than 48 million passengers, while Sabiha Gökçen welcomed more than 28 million.
This scale creates an enormous economic field in maintenance, training, simulation, ground handling, air traffic management, airport technologies, software, spare parts and the aviation supply industry.
As Türkiye builds a large aviation user market, an important domestic market is also emerging for companies developing their own technologies.
Developments around the world also clearly demonstrate why Türkiye needs to accelerate.
Boeing is completing FAA certification for the 737-7.
Airbus is advancing critical vibration tests in the A350F program.
Lockheed Martin is working on AI-assisted air combat alongside next-generation missile defense systems.
Northrop Grumman is developing simulation infrastructure worth hundreds of millions of dollars.
Thales is working on new models in which manned and unmanned systems will fight together.
Embraer is entering new export markets with the KC-390.
All of this tells us what the defense company of the future will have to become.
Producing aircraft alone will no longer be enough.
Producing radar alone will no longer be enough.
Producing missiles alone will not be enough either.
Platforms, munitions, radar, electronic warfare, artificial intelligence, command and control, simulation, maintenance and logistics will all need to operate within the same network.
For Türkiye, this is the point I consider most important.
Our greatest strength is not a single company.
It is our ecosystem.
If the right industrial policy is implemented, the success of one Turkish company abroad can also open the way for other Turkish companies.
A ship export can open the door to radar exports.
An air defense system can bring an electronic warfare product with it.
A platform sale can create demand for munitions.
An ammunition sale can turn into a maintenance and training agreement.
What really needs to be done is to transform Turkish defense companies from being competitors with one another into complementary elements of the same export chain.
Because the economic model of the defense industry is also changing around the world.
Instead of selling a single product to a country and leaving, the ability to remain part of that country’s defense infrastructure for decades is becoming increasingly important.
For this reason, I consider the $11.2 billion in defense and aerospace exports achieved over the last 12 months extremely important, but I believe the real objective needs to be greater than the figure itself.
Türkiye’s goal should not only be to become one of the countries that sells the most defense products in the world, but also to become one of the indispensable countries in the global defense supply chain.
And the road to that goal runs through the factory.
It runs through the engineer.
It runs through the supplier.
It runs through testing infrastructure.
It runs through export financing.
And most importantly, it runs through mass production.
Türkiye has passed the first stage.
It has answered the question “Can we do it?” through numerous projects.
It has also begun to pass the second stage.
It is answering the question “Can we sell it?” with billions of dollars in exports.
Now we are at the third and most difficult stage:
“Can we simultaneously produce, deliver on time and support for years the orders of dozens of countries?”
I believe this is now the real challenge facing the Turkish defense industry.
Because in the new world order, a strong defense industry will not simply be an industry that makes good weapons.
It will be an industry capable of producing hundreds or thousands of them when necessary, delivering them to different parts of the world and continuing to stand behind them after delivery.
I believe Türkiye has a major opportunity ahead of it.
ASELSAN’s growing order book, STM’s ships reaching distant geographies, the rise in defense and aerospace exports, and the enormous scale emerging in civil aviation tell us something:
Türkiye is moving beyond the era of saying, “I am here too” in defense and aviation.
Now a more ambitious era lies ahead.
It is the era of saying, “I am a permanent player in this market.”
And the path to achieving that does not run through flashy promotions, but through functioning factories, on-time deliveries and sustainable exports.
I wish all aviation professionals a safe and peaceful week.
For your views and suggestions: Mevlüt Zor / mevlutzorr@gmail.com
