IATA March 2026 Report: Disruptions in the Middle East Affected Cargo Markets, Demand Fell by 4.8% in March

According to IATA’s March 2026 data, global air cargo demand decreased by 4.8%. While war-related disruptions centred in the Gulf put pressure on the sector, Asia-Pacific and Africa are set to become the new centres of growth.

War-related disruption in the Middle East dragged down global air cargo demand, but growth centred in Asia and Africa became the sector’s points of resilience.

Geneva – The International Air Transport Association (IATA) published data for the global air cargo markets for March 2026 and reported the following results:

Total demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres (CTKs), fell by 4.8% compared to March 2025 levels (a 5.5% decline for international operations).

Capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometres (ACTKs), decreased by 4.7% compared to March 2025 (a 6.8% decline for international operations).

“IATA Director General Willie Walsh said, ‘Air cargo demand fell by 4.8% in March compared to the same period last year. The primary reason was the severe disruptions at major hubs in the Gulf due to the war in the Middle East. The timing of the typical post-Lunar New Year slowdown also contributed to the decline. At this point, underlying demand trends appear strong, and recent revisions by the World Trade Organization and the International Monetary Fund to trade and GDP projections indicate that growth will continue in 2026. Importantly, air cargo networks provide the flexibility needed to support global supply chains adapting to geopolitical, tariff, and operational pressures. All eyes are on fuel supply and prices, which are expected to test the sector’s resilience in the coming months,’ he said.

There are several factors to note in the operating environment:

Global industrial production increased by 3.1% year-on-year in February, marking the 38th consecutive month of growth. Global goods trade rose by 8.0% year-on-year in February.

Jet fuel prices rose sharply in March, increasing by 106.6% year-on-year; this was accompanied by a 43.1% increase in crude oil prices and a 320% surge in refining margins.

Global manufacturing sector confidence remained in expansion territory in March, although it showed a slight easing compared to February. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) stood at 51.4. The PMI for new export orders was 50.1—both remaining above the 50-point expansion threshold, signalling favourable conditions for air cargo demand.

Regional Performance in March

Asia-Pacific airlines recorded a 5.4% year-on-year increase in air cargo demand in March. Capacity increased by 5.0% year-on-year.

North American carriers saw a 1.2% year-on-year decline in air cargo demand in March. Capacity decreased by 1.1% year-on-year.

European carriers recorded a 2.2% year-on-year increase in air cargo demand in March. Capacity increased by 4.2% year-on-year.

Middle Eastern carriers experienced a 54.3% year-on-year drop in air cargo demand in March, marking the weakest performance among all regions. Capacity decreased by 52.4% year-on-year.

Latin American and Caribbean carriers saw a 1.8% year-on-year increase in air cargo demand in March. Capacity increased by 5.1% year-on-year.

African airlines recorded a 7.0% year-on-year increase in air cargo demand in March, the strongest growth among all regions. Capacity decreased by 4.6% year-on-year.

Trade Lane Growth

Air cargo performance varied across major trade lanes in March. The Africa–Asia route led growth, followed by Asia–Europe, while intra-Asia trade also remained strong at the regional level. In contrast, Gulf-related routes were heavily affected by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.