The International Air Transport Association (IATA), in its newly published global outlook report, stated that supply chain bottlenecks in aviation have deepened and aircraft availability has become one of the most critical issues limiting the sector’s growth rate. According to the report, production and delivery delays are preventing the industry from meeting demand, and the impact of these bottlenecks is not expected to return to normal before the 2031–2034 period.
Delivery Shortfall Exceeds 5,300 Aircraft, Backlog at Historic Record
According to IATA data, the supply-demand imbalance in the sector has reached critical levels:
- Global delivery shortfall: At least 5,300 aircraft
- Order backlog: Over 17,000 aircraft (around 60% of the active fleet)
- This backlog corresponds to 12 years of capacity at the current production rate.
- Average fleet age: 15.1 years
- Passenger: 12.8 years
- Cargo: 19.6 years
- Widebody: 14.5 years
The number of aircraft stored in inventory has surpassed 5,000, reaching one of the highest levels in history.
New aircraft deliveries are expected to begin recovering by the end of 2025 and accelerate from 2026 onwards. However, due to the permanent production losses of the last five years, supply will continue to lag behind demand, and normalisation is expected to take many years.
Walsh: “Airlines Are Under Cost Pressure, Passengers Are Paying More”
IATA Director General Willie Walsh stated that supply chain problems are severely challenging airlines both operationally and financially, saying:
“Airlines are suffering major losses due to high leasing costs, reduced planning flexibility, delayed sustainability investments, and difficulties in accessing suitable aircraft types. This situation increases costs for both airlines and passengers. Solutions must be accelerated before the impacts worsen.”
New Factors Deepening Delivery Delays
The report summarises problems in production and certification processes under the following points:
1. Engine production bottlenecks are locking up airframe manufacturing
Due to quality and maintenance issues in engines, newly manufactured airframes are being kept in hangars until engines become available.
2. New aircraft certification periods have lengthened
Certification processes that used to take 12–24 months have extended to 4–5 years, significantly delaying the renewal of long-haul fleets.
3. US–China trade tensions are increasing costs
Tariffs on metal and electronic components are deepening supply chain bottlenecks, pushing maintenance and production costs higher.
4. Shortage of skilled labour is critical
A lack of expert labour in engine and component manufacturing is slowing down plans to increase production.
5. Supply chain fragility is increasing
Dependence on a few suppliers for critical parts poses serious risks amid economic and geopolitical uncertainties.
Fuel Efficiency Slowing, Ageing Fleets Increasing Costs
As fleets age, improvements in fuel efficiency are rapidly decreasing:
- Historical fuel efficiency improvement: 2.0% per year
- 2025 actual: 0.3%
- 2026 forecast: 1.0%
This forces airlines to operate older aircraft that consume more fuel.
Risky Outlook for the Cargo Fleet
- Conversion of passenger aircraft to freighters has slowed.
- Delays in widebody production are limiting cargo capacity.
- Ageing cargo aircraft are approaching the end of their useful life.
Cost of Supply Chain Bottlenecks in 2025: Over $11 Billion
According to a joint study by IATA and Oliver Wyman, the sector’s projected losses for 2025 are as follows:
- Fuel costs: $4.2 billion
- Maintenance costs: $3.1 billion
- Engine leasing costs: $2.6 billion
- Spare parts/stock costs: $1.4 billion
Proposed Solutions: A More Transparent Supply Chain and Advanced Production
The report recommends prioritising the following steps to ease bottlenecks:
Reducing OEM dependency in MRO processes
Facilitating access to alternative sourcing options in aftermarket services.
Full visibility in the supply chain
Digital traceability at all levels for early risk detection and bottleneck management.
Data-sharing and predictive maintenance platforms
Optimising spare parts inventories and reducing aircraft downtime.
Widespread adoption of advanced manufacturing techniques
Accelerating approval processes for alternative parts (e.g., USM – used serviceable materials).
