Europe is faced with dwindling jet fuel reserves, with the continent currently holding less than a month of fuel. This places the continent as one of the most exposed to the ongoing 2026 Iran Crisis. Reuters has reported that the aviation fuel reserves are sitting at critically low levels, and that ongoing tension in the Middle East is threatening to disrupt travel within the continent and on key import routes from the United States and Asia.
With less than a month of fuel supply available, the situation could lead to a supply disruption due to the ongoing geopolitical tension. Europe requires jet fuel imports from the United States and Asia; however, due to ongoing disruptions to maritime and air routes, these choke points have hampered supply capacity.
According to a report from the International Air Transport Association (IATA), the ongoing tension has pushed jet fuel prices more than 100% year on year, and this is in addition to a 43% increase in overall crude oil prices. Due to the conflict in Iran, the US operation Epic Fury has removed around 20 million barrels of oil per day from the international market.
These actions have seen dire consequences for European Airlines, which continue to face additional costs of fuel. The mandate of ReFuelEU, which requires airlines to operate 6% of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) by the end of the decade, now also must contend with the doubled cost of fossil fuel prices, which are compressing margins to what some are describing as ‘unsustainable levels’.
The ongoing shortage of jet fuel in Europe is concerning for the popular summer season. The threat of ongoing supply disruption may see airlines forced to implement additional fuel surcharges, which increase airfares, or cancel or suspend long-haul flights.
Britain, France And Germany Are At The Greatest Risk
As suggested by the Economic Times, Britain, France, and Germany are particularly vulnerable in the jet fuel saga, as the countries depend heavily on Middle Eastern shipments of fuel via the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait, as we know, is a gateway for around a fifth of seaborne oil and liquefied natural gas.
The ongoing vulnerability of shipments from the Strait means there has been a supply deficit of close to 600,000 barrels per day. Inventory in Europe sat at approximately 38 million barrels at the start of June, compared to around 99 million in the United States. This leaves the European continent with less than 30 days of cover, the lowest in major markets.
The European Commission has noted that the situation could deteriorate, and that Brussels is ready to step in and coordinate national reserves if required.
Carriers are expected to make mass cancellations in response.
What Action Is Being Taken To Avoid Running Out Of Jet Fuel
Airlines are already taking evasive action to limit the chances of this happening. Lufthansa, Germany’s largest and one of Europe’s biggest airlines, has already canceled around 20,000 flights across the summer to save on fuel. Airlines are already actively reviewing routes, densifying capacity, and looking at passenger numbers to make sure that routes are operating at sustainable levels.
EU Ministers have already announced plans to launch fuel observatories, which monitor the stock and flows across the European continent, and national reserves could be released should the situation deteriorate. The Energy Union Task Force, which includes representatives from the European Commission and EU countries, has met to discuss these latest developments, undertake assessments on stock levels, and how to provide updates on the situation to their respective countries.
Many airlines have secure fuel for the coming months, and as suggested by the Airline Observer, it would be unlikely that airlines will systematically run out of fuel, and airlines are on daily calls with suppliers to ensure a pipeline of incoming reserves. While fuel costs have ballooned, this has made airlines take stock and prepare for a changing landscape across the coming months.
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