The International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced in its Long-Term Demand Projections (LTDP) report that global air passenger demand is expected to more than double by 2050.
According to the report, global demand, which stood at 9 trillion revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) in 2024, is projected to reach 20.8 trillion RPK by 2050 under the mid scenario, with an annual growth rate of 3.1%.
According to different scenarios:
- High growth: 21.9 trillion RPK (3.3% CAGR)
- Low growth: 19.5 trillion RPK (2.9% CAGR)
These projections vary depending on factors such as economic growth, population increase, fuel prices, and energy transition.
The aviation sector is considered an important indicator of global economic growth. The increase in passenger demand will have a direct impact on tourism, trade, and employment.
IATA’s modelling is based on a broad dataset derived from approximately 41,000 country pairs over the 2011–2024 period, with per capita income (PPP-based GDP) identified as the most significant determinant of demand.
- 2024 global demand: 9 trillion RPK
- 2050 mid scenario: 20.8 trillion RPK
- Average growth: 3.1% CAGR
Regional growth expectations:
- Asia Pacific: 3.8%
- Africa: 3.6%
- North America: 2.8%
- Europe: 2.5%
Fastest growing markets:
- Intra-Africa (4.9%)
- Africa – Asia Pacific (4.5%)
- Asia Pacific – Middle East (3.9%)
Long-term trends:
- Permanent structural changes in demand after COVID-19
- Gradual slowdown in growth rates (6.1% → 4.5% → 3.1%)
IATA’s long-term projections demonstrate that the global aviation sector maintains its growth potential. However, for this growth to be sustainable, accelerating infrastructure investments, regulatory alignment, and the transition to clean energy are of critical importance.
Read IATA’s “Long-Term Air Transport Passenger Demand Forecasts” report
Aviation Editor’s Comment
While the report shows that the aviation sector will continue its strong long-term growth, the gradual slowdown in growth rates should be noted. This does not indicate weakening demand, but rather that the sector is entering a phase of maturity.
The high growth expectations, particularly in emerging markets, create new opportunities for airlines and infrastructure investments. On the other hand, the limited growth in mature markets such as Europe suggests that competition will become more intense.
SOURCE: https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2026-releases/2026-03-17-01/
