S&P Global Ratings has confirmed TAV Airports’ credit rating at ‘BB’, while stating that uncertainties regarding the impact of the war in the Middle East are increasing. A slowdown in traffic growth is expected.
Uncertainty Warning from S&P Global
International credit rating agency S&P Global Ratings highlighted that uncertainties regarding the duration and scope of the conflict in the Middle East are high.
The agency emphasized that it is difficult to predict the potential impact of the war on commodity prices, supply chains, global economies, and credit conditions. Therefore, it stated that there are significant uncertainties in current macroeconomic and credit forecasts.
TAV Airports’ Traffic Exposure Limited
The report noted that passenger traffic from the Middle East accounts for approximately 3.5% of TAV Airports’ total portfolio.
Although this ratio appears low, it was assessed that the conflict could negatively affect tourism activity, particularly during the summer season, and that indirect effects could reduce passenger demand.
Expectation of a Slowdown in Traffic Growth
S&P Global expects a slowdown in TAV’s traffic growth if the conflict continues. Accordingly:
- Growth is expected to be in the range of 0–1% in 2026
- In the post-2027 period, it is expected to recover to levels of 2.0–3.0
- These figures are slightly below previous forecasts.
Tbilisi Concession Supports Cash Flow
The extension of TAV’s concession for Tbilisi International Airport in Georgia until 2031 stands out as an important factor strengthening the company’s cash flow.
S&P Global stated that this extension enhances TAV’s financial flexibility and supports its resilience against geopolitical risks.
Credit Ratings Confirmed
S&P Global Ratings confirmed TAV Airports’ credit ratings as follows:
- Issuer credit rating: BB
- $400 million bond maturing in 2028: BB-
It was also stated that the outlook remains “stable”. This outlook is based on the expectation that the company’s cash flow from operations will remain strong relative to its debt level.
Financial Outlook and Liquidity Strong
The agency expects TAV to:
- Maintain an FFO/debt ratio above 10%
- Continue generating positive free cash flow
- Manage liquidity and refinancing needs comfortably
The company’s portfolio diversification, foreign currency-based revenues, and international operations were also cited as factors supporting financial resilience.
Risks and Scenarios
The report also highlighted potential risks, particularly:
- Prolongation of the war
- Weakening travel demand during the summer season
- Increasing ticket prices and fuel costs
Rising capital expenditures
These factors could put pressure on traffic and financial indicators.
However, it was also emphasized that despite geopolitical risks, TAV recorded traffic growth in 2025 and demonstrated operational resilience.
https://www.airportgundem.com/sp-global-ratings-tav-havalimanlari-notunu-bb-olarak-teyit-etti/
